—————-6/12/11 16h locale
Alenga redevient Tempête Tropicale Modérée avec 992 hpa en son centre, comme prévu par les différents modèles, elle adopte une trajectoire SSE et va continuer à s’affaiblir et s’évacuer vers le sud par la suite.
Bulletin MTOTEC
Warning Nr / Avis Nr NR07 06/12/2011 1300 UTC
NR09 06/12/2011 1300 UTC
System / Système MODERATE TROPICAL STORM / TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE TROPICAL DEPRESSION / DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
Name / Nom ALENGA NR02
Position / Position NEAR 13° 5 S – 87° 5 E
06/12/2011 1200 UTC NEAR 17° 3 S – 69° 0 E 06/12/2011 1200
UTC
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale
estimée au centre 992 HPA 997 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi
(10 mn) près du centre 40 KT (75 KM/H) 30 KT (55
KM/H)
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 55 KT (105 KM/H) 45 KT
(85 KM/H)
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de
Dvorak) CI 3.0 CI 2.5
Movement over the past 06 hours / Déplacement au cours des
dernières 06 heures S/SSE 03 KT (05 KM/H) SSW 03 KT (05
KM/H)
Other informations / Autres informations — – ©
MTOTEC
—————-5/12/11 14h locale
Suite à une rapide intensification Alenga devient une Forte Tempête tropicale (selon le JTWC)
050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM WEST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 050238Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE AND TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
050013Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWS 50-55 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
THE 050530Z KNES SATELLITE FIX WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
EVIDENT MICROWAVE EYE. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS CONFIRMS THAT TC 01S HAS UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 01S IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES, BUT
OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
BEFORE AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. TC 01S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ET BY TAU 48 AND COMPLETE
ET BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF RECURVATURE AND OVERALL FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24. HOWEVER,
TRACK SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TO CAPTURE THE
ACCELERATED ET TRANSITION THAT SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14
FEET.
—————- 5/12/11 12h locale
Alenga est une tempête tropicale, avec une pression en son centre de 995 hpa. Pour le moment elle se rapproche de nos côtes, bien que située à 3500 km de la Réunion. Le JTWC prévoit une intensification du phénomène d’ici 36 heures et un éloignement de nos côtes, pour adopter une trajectoire Sud Est.
Alenga s’est intensifier rapidement ces dernières 24h, grâce notamment a une température de la mer suffisante et un cisaillement faible. Ces conditions seront toujours favorables pour les 36 prochaines heures, d’ou cette intensification. Alenga atteindra certainement le stade de Forte tempête tropicale selon les modèles de prévisions.
Pour l’heure actuelle Alenga ne concernera pas les mascareignes. Le CMRS n’a toujours pas émis de bulletin….
Mais on reste prudent. Donc a suivre….
En complément le Bulletin du JTWC pour les anglophones.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
WTXS31 PGTW 050300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
—
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z — NEAR 12.3S 87.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 87.9E
—
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z — 12.6S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
—
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z — 13.0S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
—
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z — 13.6S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
—
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z — 14.4S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z — 16.6S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS – 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS – 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
—
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
—
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z — 19.1S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
—
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 87.6E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
042021Z
DEC 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 042030
)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
—————- 5/12/11 10h locale
Alenga, ex 99S (NRL) a été baptisé par les services de météorologie Mauricien.
FROM: MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
LATEST SATTELITE IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LOCATED AT 05/0530Z NEAR 12.3 SOUTH AND 87.9 EAST HAS
INTENSIFIED INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS BEEN NAMED
ALENGA.
MOVEMENT GENERAL WEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
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